9 Conclusions, discussion and recommendations
From EvolutionaryProductDevelopment
9.1 Introduction
In this section, the conclusions from the sections 5 and 7 are summarized. In section 9.3 some critical observations are made with regard to the product phases. In the last section, some recommendations are given for further detailing and investigation of the theory.
9.2 Conclusions with regard to the product phases
On the basis of both studies it can be concluded that the product phases appear in the predicted order. Some disruptions are found, but most of the times these can be explained by external factors.
9.2.1 Retrospective case survey
In most cases products follow the product phases as expected, but with some (often small) disruptions. These regard, for instance, the promotion (as is the case with the bicycle and the moped), the number of competitors (with vacations) and the production (with glasses). Furthermore, the findings revealed that it was difficult to draw a fine line between the end of one product phase and the beginning of the next, since some product phases overlap one another for long periods of time. However, in a number of cases the last two phases were not found. An explanation can be that the product has not yet reached these phases. Although, an important question that sometimes arises, is if a product is actually suited to reach the product individualisation phase. Finally, it proved that the awareness phase can often be found at a corporate level (examples are the electric shaver, the laptop, the vacuum cleaner, the washing machine and shampoo packaging), but very rarely at the product level.
9.2.2 Ranking by experts
Section 7 described how seventy one experts ranked forty nine statements - formulated in section 6. It can be concluded that they describe the product characteristics, and with that the product phases with mixed results. The first two product phases are described in the range from 'well' to 'very well'. From the statement about the product performance phase, 93% is confirmed by the experts. For optimisation, this percentage reaches 85. The next four phases are not described so well. Itemisation has the lowest score, as only 56% of the statements are confirmed by the experts. For segmentation the percentage is 67, for individualisation it is 62% and for awareness it is 57%. It should be noted that the experts only deny a statement once, and that any other statements that are not confirmed are not denied by them.
9.3 Discussion
From this study, it can be concluded that the product phases form a useful aid to describe the historic development of a product and that in most cases the product phases appear in the predicted order. In this section, some seemingly conflicting findings are discussed and the predicting value of the theory is analysed.
Baudet (1986), states that products usually start as 'status products'. Rogers (1995) also mentions status as a motive for people to be the first to purchase a new, innovative product. These statements seem to conflict with the theory of product phases, because their status seems to become important only in the product segmentation phase. However, Baudet adds to his statement that these products often "function poorly compared to existing products, but are wanted despite of that". As an example he mentions, amongst others, the first cars that were much less reliable than the horse-drawn coaches, which were the norm in those times. With this he explains the difference between the status aspect in the first product phases and in the product segmentation phase (and the phases thereafter). During the first phases the possession of the product is discriminating (whether the product performs well or not), no activity from the designer is needed to achieve that. During the latter product phases, this is no longer the case and the designer has to deliberately add this property (emotional benefit) to his design.
Two questions that have not been discussed in great detail during the course of this study (and therefore can only be answered partially) are:
- Is it possible to predict future developments of a product?
- Does phasing of the product life cycle (in the described product phases) offer designers starting points when they are developing new products?
To answer the second question: Master's students at the University of Twente have proved to be very able in developing the next generation of a product based on the model. Two students preferred not to design a new product but to develop an interactive website with which a consumer can design his own product. According to the students, both products are in the individualisation phase. Another student designed an electric shaver where it was possible to affix a photograph or drawing in order to personalise the product. In this way a product that is in the segmentation phase can be individualised - suitable for a Father's Day present, for example. For some students it was difficult to design something 'evolutionary', as the tendency was big to make an 'innovative jump' instead of the 'next, small, logical step'.
Returning to the first question - Is it possible to predict future developments of product? This has already been partly answered now. If it is possible to develop a new product based on the product phases, then it also is possible to make predictions. The question if these predictions are correct can only be answered after some time.
9.4 Recommendations
In section 9.3, some remarks were made regarding the theory of product phases. The first phases have been defined with more accuracy than the latter. It seems that the 'career' of a product varies considerably as time progresses. Perhaps there is an analogy between the career of a human being and that of a product? It was shown that external factors can cause a disturbance on the course of the product phases. It also appeared that it is hard to draw a fine line between two different, successive product phases, as product phases can exist concurrently. Despite these limitations, the theory of product phases has proven to be a useful thinking aid in order to make the large variation in 'product careers' well structured and unambiguous.
9.4.1 Education
With regards to schooling, the theory has proven to be a useful tool to teach students to incorporate the history of a product into their design process when developing a new product and to develop the next logical step instead of trying to make an 'innovative jump'. This is important as most of the products that are developed are very rarely 'completely new' (and sometimes 'not new at all'), since they are often the successors of existing products that have minimal differences from their predecessors.
9.4.2 Design practice
In his design practice, a designer can use the product phases in order to guide the new product development. He can also use it as a means in the decision process. Designers seldom decide whether a product will be manufactured and introduced into the market, since this decision is usually made by the entrepreneur or manager who is in charge of the project. However, in most cases the designer has to convince his client. When doing so he can make use of the product phases to explain why and on what grounds certain decisions were made. Finally, a designer who has his own agency can use the product phases as an acquisition tool. If he studies the history of the products of his prospect he can give them (even in the first meeting) a vision on the main lines of his future product assortment.
9.4.3 Research
As in section 9.3, there are many aspects that warrant further investigation into the theory of the product phases. For example:
- Analysing more products.
- Investigating to what extent the theory can be used for the various services.
- Researching the similarities and possible differences between consumer products and business to business products.
However, the following two aspects should have priority because they will (hopefully) remove any uncertainty concerning the last two phases (individualisation and awareness) and may also further improve the usability of the theory.
- Research to what degree the last two product phases form a part of the segmentation phase, or should they be considered as separate product phases?
- A study to find out to what extent designers are able to make 'correct predictions about future products' based on the theory of the product phases (i.e., how many developed products based upon the proposed theory have actually been successful).
With regard to this last question, the documentation and the study (after a few years) of products that were developed by students during the course 'Evolutionary Product Development' could give an indication. How many products developed by the students match successful products developed by companies during the same period of time? How close are their designs to those that later became a success?
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